Wealth Insight 2009-07-31
Split second decision making
I’ve been studying how we make decisions. Sometimes we take a long time to decide and then make a mistake anyway. Other times we decide in a flash and we are right.
Does it matter? Very much so! If spending more time on a decision doesn’t guarantee success, then what should we do?
Does it matter? Very much so! If spending more time on a decision doesn’t guarantee success, then what should we do?
Let me give you two examples.
Example 1:
A panel of art experts spends months deciding to buy a $10 million work of art. They take samples, they run a battery of tests. They check every detail. But they buy a fake anyway.
Meanwhile, a fake-spotter takes one look and knows the truth immediately.
* The panel goes purely by the ‘facts’. The paperwork is perfect. So they make a rational decision. But they are wrong.
* The fake-spotter goes on first impressions. He is right.
How does he do it? Is it talent? Magic? Genius? Luck? Instinct? Feel?
He listened to the little voice of truth within, that tells us all when something is right and when it is wrong. Sometimes it’s a bad feeling in the stomach that warns us. Sometimes it just doesn’t look right, and we can’t explain why. Some people will get a headache. It can be very physical. Very hard to understand or explain.
The panel of experts were just as expert as the fake-spotter. So it’s not that he knew more than they did. Both had the degrees. Both had the art experience. But the members of the panel overrode their instincts and ignored their misgivings. And he didn’t.
The lesson in this story is my first law of wealth creation: first educate yourself. Now why do I say that? When the panel takes months to educate themselves about the artwork, whereas the fake-spotter takes seconds?
The answer is simple. The fake-spotter recognized the truth immediately because he had seen so many thousands of fakes that he knew one when he saw one.
Without being able to say why. In fact there were many things that were wrong, and he saw them all, but couldn’t explain just yet.
Later everyone realized that it looked too new. Too perfect for something supposedly so old. The style was wrong. So there were concrete reasons that said it was a fake. But it took a specially educated brain to spot it immediately.
What was the fake-spotter’s ‘special education’?
1. He educated himself by studying thousands of fakes.
2. He listened to the voice of instinct. So knowing how to stay in tune with instinct was the crucial difference, and that is something you need to learn how to do.
Because otherwise you can make mistakes!
So before you rush off and make a split-second decision about anything important, look out for next week’s newsletter. In that example you’ll see that instinct sometimes seems to fail. Again, there are excellent reasons. And you can train yourself to get it right!
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Hannes Dreyer
Wealth Mentor
Wealth Mentor
